On 19 January a long-awaited ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel came into effect in Gaza, providing much-needed respite to Palestinians following fifteen months of unrelenting death and destruction. After 7 October 2023, when Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups launched a coordinated assault in Israel – killing at least 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals, and taking over 250 people as hostages back to Gaza – the Israeli government unleashed a brutal military offensive in a manner widely characterized as collective punishment of Palestinians. Israel’s war on Gaza has been defined by mass atrocity crimes, including war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, while Hamas has been accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Since October 2023 over 47,000 Palestinians have been directly killed by Israeli aggression and some 111,000 injured, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza. The majority of fatalities have been women and children. 

The ceasefire agreement – brokered by the United States (US), Egypt and Qatar – consists of three six-week phases. Across the phases, a sequenced set of measures would lead to a surge in humanitarian aid, the exchange of all hostages in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners and detainees, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, the return of displaced Palestinians to what is left of their homes and, ultimately, a permanent cessation of hostilities and the recovery and reconstruction of Gaza. 

One month into the first phase, Hamas has released 24 hostages (civilians and soldiers) in exchange for over 1,000 Palestinian detainees held in Israeli prisons. Over 10,000 trucks of humanitarian aid have entered Gaza and Israeli forces have withdrawn from the Netzarim Corridor, a militarized zone separating northern and southern Gaza. More than half a million displaced Palestinians are estimated to have returned to northern Gaza. However, the ceasefire agreement has already been tested; Hamas alleges that Israel has violated terms of the agreement, including by obstructing the entry of select humanitarian relief supplies, delaying the return of displaced Palestinians and continuing airstrikes and gunfire in Gaza. When Hamas briefly sought to postpone a hostage handover in response to these violations, Israel and its allies threatened to end the ceasefire. Final negotiations for the second and third phase of the ceasefire remain pending. 

The feasibility of the three-phase ceasefire agreement remains fragile. Not only does its full implementation require the success of pending negotiations and for all parties to uphold their obligations, but prospects for its sustainability will also depend on an enabling international environment. Nevertheless, the ceasefire and negotiations offer a critical opportunity to assess the continuing threats to populations in the region and outline what the international community, Israel and Hamas must do to confront and alleviate these risks and move towards a sustainable political solution and long-term peace.

Ongoing and imminent risks of further atrocities

The ceasefire agreement offers a glimmer of hope for a permanent cessation of hostilities in Gaza, but the risk of ethnic cleansing, war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide remains high. Successful implementation of the ceasefire agreement alone will not erase the widespread suffering, trauma and devastation, nor the humanitarian catastrophe created by Israel’s aggression. As long as the root causes of this conflict and the abusive policies and practices in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT) that predate the October 2023 attacks remain in place, violence against civilians in both Israel and the OPT, along with needless suffering, will persist. 

While there are numerous potential triggers for further abuses, this analysis aims to highlight some of the most pertinent concerns that the international community should confront today.

Risks to populations who remain in Gaza

Since going into effect last month, the ceasefire has resulted in a significant reduction in hostilities as Israel has halted its aerial bombardment of Gaza and curbed ground attacks. While this provides significant relief to populations in Gaza, it has yet to result in a complete end to hostilities, with over 100 Palestinians reportedly killed and 800 injured by Israeli forces since 19 January. 

Over the past fifteen months, Israel has subjected Palestinians in Gaza – constituting approximately 40 percent of the Palestinian population in the OPT – to genocidal acts, including killings, causing serious bodily or mental harm and deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about their destruction. The scale and gravity of death, destruction and displacement have grossly exceeded the permissible methods of war and have been unprecedented in comparison to past attacks on Gaza. The UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry (CoI) on the OPT, including East Jerusalem, and Israel determined that Israel has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity during its military operations and attacks in Gaza, including starvation as a method of warfare, intentionally directing attacks against civilians and civilian objects, sexual violence, torture, forcible transfer and deliberate attacks on medical personnel and facilities, among others. The UN Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices Affecting the Human Rights of the Palestinian People and Other Arabs of the Occupied Territories also determined that Israel’s warfare in Gaza is consistent with the characteristics of genocide. According to the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the OPT, Israel employed a gross distortion of International Humanitarian law (IHL) to provide “humanitarian camouflage” for the commission of international crimes and to legitimize its genocidal violence in Gaza. By abusing fundamental IHL concepts such as human shields, collateral damage, safe zones, evacuations and medical protection, Israel utilized a military strategy which obfuscated the distinction between civilians and combatants; characterized all of Gaza as a military objective; rationalized patterns of attacks on civilian objects; and knowingly killed civilians en masse. This strategy – portrayed as IHL-abiding – revealed an eliminationist conduct of hostilities and “reasonably and solely infers a genocidal policy,” according to the UN Special Rapporteur.

Warnings made by civil society organizations, including the Global Centre, regarding the risk of genocide in October 2023 and subsequent determinations by various experts and organizations were not reached on the basis of physical violence alone. The UN Special Rapporteur concluded that statements made by high-level Israeli military and government officials, which included dehumanizing language, are evidence of genocidal intent. The rhetoric of Israeli authorities, coupled with their conduct in Gaza, have reflected, beyond military objectives, an accompanying intent to destroy a substantial part of the Palestinian population. Many experts and prominent rights organizations also concluded that Israel’s tactics strike at the heart of Palestinian identity and existence. Although the cessation of physical hostilities in Gaza is significant, it does not completely remove the underlying conditions that enable the further commission of genocide.

Israel’s widespread bombardment has left much of Gaza uninhabitable and dangerous to navigate. Hospitals, mosques, water and sanitation facilities and refugee and displacement camps were targeted and destroyed despite protections under IHL. Through successive so-called evacuation orders, Israel displaced around 90 percent of Gaza’s population – many of whom have been repeatedly displaced – into overcrowded and unsafe areas with inadequate resources. The waves of forced displacement left many traumatized, particularly given that approximately 70 percent of Gaza’s population are refugees or descendants of refugees whose towns and villages were ethnically cleansed by Israel during the 1948 Nakba.

While the cessation of hostilities has enabled the return of displaced persons to their homes, an estimated 69 percent of all buildings – including 92 percent of homes and 88 percent of schools – were destroyed or damaged, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Returning residents are also facing significant risks from unexploded ordnance. Palestinians in Gaza will remain at risk until conditions for a full and safe return are met, which will require significant investment in rebuilding homes, critical civilian infrastructure and livelihoods. 

Tactics utilized by Israel throughout the conflict – including the complete siege of Gaza, starvation as a weapon of war and intentionally blocking humanitarian aid – created a precarious humanitarian situation. The deliberate denial of essential supplies to a besieged population caused deaths “more silent than those caused by bombs.” All children under the age of five – an estimated 335,000 – are at high risk of malnutrition, according to the UN Children’s Fund. Palestinians in Gaza are currently ten times more at risk of acute malnutrition than they were prior to the start of the war and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification has projected that 91 percent of the population will continue to face high levels of acute food insecurity. On 30 January two laws took effect that effectively ban the UN Relief Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) from operating in the territories under Israeli control. According to Commissioner General Philippe Lazzarini, without the capacity and infrastructure of UNRWA, the UN’s humanitarian response in Gaza will “collapse,” jeopardizing the scale of relief needed to address a looming famine, restore health and education systems and alleviate the suffering of millions. 

Statements by the Israeli government and its allies also undermine the viability and sustainability of the ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated that the ceasefire is “temporary” and that Israel reserves the right to resume war if or when he deems necessary. Recent remarks made by US President Donald Trump – advocating for the forcible transfer of Palestinians in Gaza to neighboring countries, a war crime, and the redevelopment of Gaza under US ownership – are in blatant violation of international law and would amount to ethnic cleansing. In response, Israeli officials have already seized the opportunity to reinvigorate plans for expelling Palestinians from Gaza under the guise of “voluntary” resettlement. This inflammatory rhetoric could not only jeopardize the ceasefire, but also exacerbate the conditions that enable the commission of further atrocities and embolden perpetrators. Furthermore, it aggravates tensions outside of Gaza between Palestinian and Israeli communities and their respective supporters.

Escalating threats in the Occupied West Bank

On 21 January – two days after the ceasefire in Gaza came into effect – Israel launched a large-scale operation in Jenin refugee camp, which has since expanded to Tulkarem, Tubas and other areas in the Occupied West Bank. In just four weeks, Israel’s military assault – through airstrikes, ground incursions and demolitions – killed over 40 Palestinians, including a 2-year-old girl, leveled dozens of residential buildings, damaged critical infrastructure and forcibly displaced at least 40,000 Palestinians. OCHA warned that “lethal, war-like tactics are being applied, raising concerns over the use of force that exceeds law enforcement standards,” in what may amount to war crimes. While Israeli officials claim they are conducting a so-called counterterrorism campaign, statements by the defense minister that the Israeli military is applying the same methods as those used in Gaza demonstrates the heightened risk of further atrocities in the Occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem. 

For years Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank have regularly been subjected to violence by Israeli settlers, while Israeli security forces also perpetrate widespread attacks against Palestinians, oftentimes with the use of force that is unlawful and disproportionate. Since the start of the war on Gaza, Israeli settlement-expansion and state-backed settler attacks have escalated, with the UN recording over 1,400 incidents related to settler violence in 2024 alone. Even before the 7 October 2023 attacks, violence between Israeli settlers and Palestinians had already reached historic levels, with over 200 Palestinians killed and thousands injured and nearly 30 Israelis killed between January and September 2023. At the time, this had marked the highest number of casualties since the start of the UN’s documentation in 2005. Israel is the occupying power and as such its conduct is governed by IHL, which it has systematically violated throughout the OPT.

Tensions between settlers and Palestinians have been exacerbated by the Israeli government’s plans to build thousands of housing units to expedite settlement expansion in the Occupied West Bank, effectively ensuring that occupied territory will remain under Israeli control indefinitely. Under the Geneva Conventions, settlement expansion is a war crime and Israel has been instructed by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to cease such actions.

Illegal and discriminatory policies and practices

Any attempt to ensure the sustainability of the ceasefire and long-lasting peace anchored in international law will require significant changes to the status quo and addressing the root causes that ignited the war on Gaza. The CoI has concluded that continued occupation, as well as discrimination against Palestinians, are the key causes of recurrent instability and protraction of conflict in the region.

Palestinian territory – encompassing the Gaza Strip and West Bank, including East Jerusalem – has been illegally occupied by Israel since 1967, endangering the cultural existence of the Palestinian people and violating their right to self-determination. The Israeli government has established a two-tiered legal and political system that provides comprehensive rights for Jewish Israeli settlers while imposing military rule and control on Palestinians without any basic protections or rights under international law. 

The UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the OPT determined that Israel’s occupation has been characterized by settlement expansion that aims to permanently alter the ethnic demographics of the OPT and amounts to a war crime. The UN Special Rapporteur and various human rights groups further determined that Israel’s political system of entrenched rule in the OPT satisfies the prevailing evidentiary standard for apartheid, a crime against humanity. On 19 July 2024 – twenty years after ruling on the illegality of Israel’s wall in the West Bank – the ICJ issued an Advisory Opinion declaring Israel’s occupation illegal. The landmark ruling called on Israel to rapidly end its occupation, evacuate its settlements, pay reparations to Palestinian victims and allow for the repatriation of Palestinians displaced during the occupation. In January 2025, in direct violation of the ICJ opinion, the Israeli parliament approved a draft bill that would allow for Israeli citizens to directly buy land in the West Bank and lead to further annexation of Palestinian territory. Moreover, the Israeli government has arbitrarily detained thousands of Palestinians and arrested individuals with increasing frequency since October 2023. The UN has documented evidence of Israel’s mistreatment and abuse of Palestinian detainees, including starvation, beatings and sexual violence, which may amount to torture or cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment and war crimes. Many of the Palestinians being released as part of the ceasefire deal were victims of arbitrary detentions.

Impunity for recent and past abuses

At the start of Israel’s retaliatory attacks in Gaza, in conjunction with the complete siege that amounted to collective punishment of the civilian population, the international community provided unwavering support for Israel’s right to self-defense without any material caveats that operations against Hamas abide by international law obligations and respect the safety, rights and dignity of Palestinians. This effectively gave Israel carte blanche to brazenly ignore IHL obligations and perpetrate wanton destruction against an already besieged population in Gaza. International law obligations are not optional or selective and apply to all parties to a conflict, even when hostilities are retaliatory or undertaken in self-defense. 

The international community has largely failed in their obligations to prevent the commission of unconscionable crimes, while various countries risk complicity through the continued sale, transfer and diversion of arms, munitions and other military equipment to Israel. Many powerful states, including the US and Germany, have fallen in line with Israel’s stated military objectives, failing to scrutinize its conduct in Gaza and repeatedly challenging the overwhelming evidence of Israel’s commission of war crimes, crimes against humanity and acts of genocide. Blanket support for Israel’s weaponization of the right to self-defense under the UN Charter – absent any concerted effort to examine the scope of this right in international law – has weakened the protective functions of the international legal system. In the face of unflinching support for Israel, the international framework of norms and laws tasked with safeguarding humanity have been severely undermined. This has only emboldened Israel’s unrestrained assault against Palestinians, and rendered all populations across the OPT at risk.

To date, twelve draft resolutions have been tabled by members of the UN Security Council (UNSC). Eight of them failed to pass, either due to insufficient votes or vetoes cast by permanent members, including the US, China and Russia. The four resolutions adopted were either unsuccessfully implemented or directly violated. On 10 June 2024 the UNSC adopted Resolution 2735 which details a three-phase ceasefire deal. However, it took over seven months and the deaths of thousands more Palestinians before Hamas and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement, which was strikingly similar to the proposal outlined in the resolution. 

Where the UNSC has failed to prevent and respond to atrocities in Gaza, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) has passed numerous resolutions since 7 October 2023, demanding an immediate ceasefire, the protection of civilians and unrestricted humanitarian access, as well as an end to Israel’s unlawful occupation and illegal settlement expansion. Though this has illustrated the resolve of a vast number of UN member states to uphold international law, resolutions adopted by the UNGA are not binding under international law, unlike those passed by the UNSC. In a further positive step in response to continued inaction and impunity, on 31 January nine countries announced the formation of the “Hague Group,” making a commitment to hold Israel accountable for its violations of international law, defend Palestinian rights and coordinate legal, diplomatic and economic measures against Israel.

In response to the case brought by South Africa against Israel for allegations of genocide against the Palestinian people, the ICJ issued legally binding provisional measures on 26 January 2024 ordering Israel to prevent the commission of all acts within Article II of the Genocide Convention, to ensure that Israeli military forces do not commit any of these acts, to prevent and punish direct and public incitement to commit genocide against Palestinians, and to provide basic services, including humanitarian aid to address adverse conditions of life in Gaza. The ICJ reaffirmed these provisions in subsequent rulings in March and May of 2024. In flagrant defiance of the ICJ’s determination of a plausible risk of genocide in Gaza and the protective measures the Court ordered, Israel continued to deliberately deny or obstruct the delivery of humanitarian relief. States Parties to the Genocide Convention also have an obligation to prevent acts of genocide, yet many continue to maintain a limited response to Israel’s violations or have themselves been complicit in ongoing crimes.  

On 21 November 2024 the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for two Israeli government officials – including Prime Minister Netanyahu – and a Hamas official. The ICC judges determined that there are reasonable grounds to believe that these senior Israeli leaders and Hamas officials bear responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Recent attempts by states to selectively adhere to decisions by the Court, including these arrest warrants, as well as the decision by the US to sanction the ICC, will further embolden Israel and increase atrocity risks for Palestinians.

While the scale of abuses and prevalence of dehumanizing rhetoric during the latest attack on Palestinians were unprecedented, the impunity for Israel’s actions is part of a longstanding pattern of returning to the status quo with limited consequence following a grave escalation. The lack of accountability for routine violations of international law over the past two decades – during which there have been at least six major offensives targeting Gaza and a land, air and sea blockade in place since 2007 – has emboldened Israel, Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups to continue committing violations and helped to enable the commission of atrocity crimes today. Over the years both Israeli forces and Palestinian armed groups have perpetrated serious violations and abuses of international law. Israel has carried out indiscriminate airstrikes that have killed thousands of civilians and targeted civilian objects, while Palestinian armed groups have launched thousands of indiscriminate rockets into populated areas, all of which likely amount to war crimes. 

Various UN officials and investigative mechanisms have reaffirmed for decades that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory – the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza – has no legal validity. Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem have been established and maintained in violation of international law. Regular deadly violence and human rights violations directed against Palestinians is used as a tool to maintain Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory, while impunity has entrenched a system of structural oppression against Palestinians. Little action has been taken to hold Israel accountable for failing to comply with international law or with the ICJ’s advisory opinions and provisional measures orders. 

The impunity that many governments afforded Israel during its genocide against the Palestinians is an assault on our common humanity and on the international laws and norms created to protect all people, everywhere and at all times. The double standards approach to upholding international law and selective pursuit of accountability has undermined the foundational rules and norms of our multilateral system. 

Immediate steps to take

With negotiations on the remaining phases of the ceasefire agreement set to begin shortly, it is crucial that the international community seize this window of opportunity to secure a permanent ceasefire, ensure its successful implementation and adequately prevent and respond to mass atrocities. 

We therefore underline the importance of the following immediate steps that must be taken by parties to the conflict and the international community:

Hamas and Israel must continue to respect the terms of the ceasefire agreement and conduct the second round of negotiations in good faith to ensure the subsequent phases of the agreement can be implemented. A permanent ceasefire in Gaza must be secured and equally applied in the Occupied West Bank. All states, including those with influence in the region, must apply diplomatic and economic pressure on Hamas and Israel to ensure the implementation and enforcement of the ceasefire agreement. States should also join the Hague Group to collectively reaffirm their role in supporting accountability and a political solution consistent with international law. Regardless of the ceasefire, the obligations of Israel and third states under the Genocide Convention and IHL still apply, and that includes all legally binding ICJ provisional measures and UNSC resolutions.

Israel must end its 17-year blockade on Gaza and commit to providing unimpeded access to humanitarian assistance. This includes repealing legislation and ending disinformation campaigns targeting UNRWA, as well as ensuring respect for its operations and premises. All states must immediately intervene resolutely to protect the mandate of UNRWA and adequately fund its vital operations across the OPT and the region. 

The recovery and reconstruction of Gaza will take decades and require billions in funding. Israel should ensure its dual-use policy – which is intended to limit imports of goods that could be used for either civilian or military purposes – does not hinder the import of materials essential to the recovery and reconstruction of Gaza. The international community, including the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and Arab League, should develop a concrete plan of support, informed by the aspirations of Palestinians, to aid in reconstruction efforts, including through financial and material assistance. It is incumbent on all states to defend Palestinians against any and all policy proposals that violate international law, including those advocating for the forcible transfer of Palestinians from Gaza. States must resolutely condemn the US proposal, including the crime of ethnic cleansing which underpins it, and reject “any attempt at demographic or territorial change in the Gaza Strip” by Israel and its allies, in line with UNSC Resolution 2735.

Beyond physical destruction, the lasting psychological impacts will be felt for generations to come. The international community must support Palestinians, ensuring they lead the reconstruction efforts in Gaza and that Israel neither obstructs nor benefits from it. Palestinian voices must be centered in all rebuilding negotiations. Moreover, it will be imperative to establish an intra-Palestinian dialogue and process to establish a governance structure that can chart a path to Palestinian statehood.

Pervasive impunity continues to threaten stability and any guarantees of nonrecurrence. International investigative teams and human rights monitors must be granted immediate and unfettered access to Gaza in order to document and preserve evidence of crimes, as well as to reveal the extent of the crimes for future accountability and justice processes. The ICC must also expand the scope of its investigation to include genocide, and send teams to speak with victims and investigate international crimes in Gaza. The international community must defend the ICC against attacks and safeguard its mandate. States Parties to the Rome Statute of the ICC must fulfill arrest obligations and avoid non-essential contacts with those sought by the Court. 

All states, in line with the ICJ’s July 2024 Advisory Opinion, which was overwhelmingly endorsed by an UNGA resolution in September, must take concrete steps to end support for Israel’s unlawful presence in the OPT and renounce providing any assistance or aid that would sustain its continuation. UN member states should support the establishment of an international mechanism to register the damages incurred by Palestinians for which the ICJ Advisory Opinion has ordered Israel to pay reparations. 

States must suspend the transfer and sale of all weapons, parts and ammunition to Israel where there is a clear risk they will be used to commit violations of international law, including sustaining the occupation. Additionally, states should review economic agreements with Israel and prohibit trade with illegal settlements. Furthermore, UN member states should support the re-establishment of the UN Special Committee against Apartheid to examine the discriminatory practices and laws of Israel in the OPT and refrain from recognizing or assisting in illegal settlement expansion and activities.

A ceasefire is only the first step. Israelis and Palestinians equally deserve to live in safety, with dignity and full access to all human rights. Justice and accountability are intimately linked to the lasting success of the ceasefire, and they are necessary if there is to be any prospect of long-term peace. The multilateral system and individual member states must not repeat old patterns and enable a return to the status quo without consequence. Palestinians and all populations around the world at risk of crimes against humanity, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and genocide cannot afford the consequences of normalizing the acts perpetrated in Gaza month after month.