Ongoing state-led repression in Venezuela may amount to crimes against humanity.

BACKGROUND:

On 28 July Venezuela held presidential elections with widespread voter turnout. While the government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) declared incumbent President Nicolás Maduro the winner, a large number of the available tally copies from polling centers documented an estimated 67 percent of votes for the leading opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia. International observers, including the UN and Carter Center, expressed serious concerns about the lack of transparency and credibility of the results announced by the CNE. Following the CNE’s declaration, protests erupted across Venezuela. Since then the government has rapidly intensified widespread repression and targeted persecution of actual or alleged opponents, including ordinary citizens, opposition members, journalists and human rights defenders.

The presidential election was viewed by many Venezuelans as a vital opportunity for a long-term democratic transition and an end to the country’s decade-long multidimensional crisis. Following years of endemic corruption and the gradual erosion of the rule of law, in 2014 mass protests erupted in response to insecurity, hyperinflation and a lack of essential services. Security forces reacted with disproportionate force, torture and sexual violence. Since then, the Venezuelan government under President Maduro, including the security and intelligence apparatus, has perpetrated systematic arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment, sexual and gender-based violence and short-term enforced disappearances targeting actual and perceived opponents. Various security forces have also allegedly perpetrated tens of thousands of extrajudicial killings in the name of combating crime, predominantly targeting men between 18 and 30 years-old living in low-income neighborhoods. Over the past decade, an estimated 8 million Venezuelans have left the country in what is considered the largest migration crisis in recent Latin American history.

The UN Human Rights Council (HRC)-mandated Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) on Venezuela, which was established in 2019, has found on multiple occasions that some violations and abuses committed since at least 2014 were part of a “widespread and systematic attack” against the civilian population and are “part of a plan orchestrated at the highest levels of the government to repress dissent through crimes against humanity.” Following the 2024 presidential election, the FFM warned of a “new wave of persecution,” including through “the accelerated reactivation of the repressive machinery that was never dismantled and is now being used to undermine the public freedoms of citizens.” The government has consistently refused to cooperate with the FFM and in February 2024 demanded the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) withdraw its staff from the country.

Communities across Venezuela, including Indigenous Peoples, also remain at heightened risk of egregious abuses by armed groups, criminal gangs or other non-state actors, acting at times with the consent and direct involvement of Venezuelan state agents who have been implicated in possible crimes against humanity.

Since 2017 the European Union (EU) has maintained sanctions against more than 50 senior officials. The United States (US) government has also imposed and expanded targeted sanctions against the Venezuelan government, as well as broader sectoral sanctions that have exacerbated the country’s pre-existing complex humanitarian emergency. On 24 April 2024 the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court inaugurated an in-country office in Caracas, while emphasizing that investigations into possible crimes against humanity will be pursued “simultaneously, and without delay.”

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

In the months leading up to the presidential election, human rights organizations warned about early warning signs of a deteriorating situation marked by targeted persecution, attacks against civic space and a systematic campaign against political opposition. To remain in power, authorities subsequently resorted to a significant and rapid intensification of repression as a strategy to silence dissent following widespread societal outrage over suspected electoral fraud. Venezuelan non-governmental organization (NGO) Foro Penal verified the detention of 1,828 individuals between 29 July and 28 October alone. Rapidly intensifying repression has been accompanied by hate speech and inflammatory rhetoric by high-level officials. On 3 August President Maduro announced that thousands of detainees will be sent to maximum security prisons and called on Venezuelans to use telecommunication channels to register data of alleged opponents. Efforts to maintain internal obedience leaves members of the military at particular risk of violations and abuses, including enforced disappearances.

On 15 August the National Assembly passed legislation known as the “NGO Law,” jeopardizing the work, safety and security of organizations across the country. Attorney General Tarek William Saab regularly threatens human rights defenders engaging with UN mechanisms with arrest upon return to Venezuela.

On 17 September the FFM warned that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Venezuelan authorities have committed the crime against humanity of politically motivated persecution. On 11 October the HRC adopted a resolution to renew the mandate of the FFM for two additional years and request OHCHR to provide an update on the deteriorating situation in Venezuela before the end of 2024.

ANALYSIS:

Venezuela continues to face a highly volatile period ahead of the official inauguration of a new administration on 10 January, as well as scheduled regional, municipal and parliamentary elections during 2025. Compared with other periods over the past decade, the current tensions and patterns of repression are unprecedented, and leave populations at imminent risk of crimes against humanity. Intensifying government repression has also increased existing vulnerabilities of an estimated 19 million Venezuelans inside the country who are in need of assistance.

Refusal by authorities to ensure transparency over the electoral process is also risking a period of renewed regional and international isolation, with disastrous effects for Venezuelans inside and outside the country. Independent monitoring, including by the FFM, is essential to prevent the recurrence of crimes against humanity and alert the international community to appropriate prevention strategies, and must go hand in hand with efforts by regional actors to compel the Maduro administration to engage in political dialogue.

Venezuela’s judicial system is perpetuating impunity for possible atrocity crimes. Government-linked media outlets also play a key role in state repression and persecution. Mass detentions and the use of telecommunication channels to persecute alleged opponents – including protesters from low-income neighborhoods – are used to maintain social control and instill fear.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Senior government officials involved in the planning and commission of violent acts, including possible crimes against humanity.
  • Lack of independent and impartial judiciary and other state institutions, as well as impunity for or tolerance of serious violations of international law, including atrocity crimes.
  • Adoption of measures to criminalize civil society organizations and attacks against democratic institutions and electoral guarantees, particularly in the context of the 2024 and 2025 elections.
  • Absence of accountable state authority, presence of non-state armed actors and high levels of crime, corruption and illicit economic exploitation in large parts of the country.
  • Political motives to continue systematic repression aimed at the consolidation of power.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Venezuelan authorities must immediately end the systematic repression and targeted persecution of all actual or alleged opponents, release all individuals subject to arbitrary detention and enforced disappearances and refrain from hate speech and inflammatory rhetoric. The government should commit to a political solution to the crisis and ensure genuine and comprehensive reform, as well as impartial investigations of all serious violations and abuses.

Latin American governments, the EU, Canada, US and other stakeholders should identify coordinated mitigation strategies to ensure a political solution to the crisis. All remaining diplomatic channels to the Maduro government – including by Colombia, Brazil and Mexico – should be used to advance mediation efforts to avoid rapidly intensifying repression and an imminent risk of atrocity crimes.

The international donor community should expand their support for civil society organizations documenting human rights violations and providing humanitarian relief to populations in need.