Ongoing state-led repression in Venezuela may amount to crimes against humanity.

BACKGROUND:

On 10 January 2025 Nicolás Maduro was sworn in for a third presidential term. Following widespread outrage over evidence of unprecedented electoral fraud during the elections held on 28 July – including tally copies from polling centers showing an estimated 67 percent of votes for the leading opposition candidate – authorities quickly escalated repression to silence dissent and maintain power. The UN Human Rights Council (HRC)-mandated Fact-Finding Mission (FFM) on Venezuela warned of “the accelerated reactivation of the repressive machinery that was never dismantled and is now being used to undermine the public freedoms of citizens.” The government has intensified persecution of actual or alleged opponents, including ordinary citizens, opposition members, journalists and human rights defenders.

Venezuelan non-governmental organization (NGO) Foro Penal recorded the detention of almost 2,000 individuals between the election and inauguration day, at least 1,135 of whom remained political prisoners as of 10 February while the whereabouts of 59 remain unknown. Rapidly intensifying repression has been accompanied by hate speech and inflammatory rhetoric by high-level officials, including a call by President Maduro to use telecommunication channels to register data of alleged opponents following protests after the vote. Efforts to maintain internal obedience also put military personnel at heightened risk of violations and abuses, including enforced disappearances.

The elections were viewed by many Venezuelans as a vital opportunity for a long-term democratic transition and an end to the country’s decade-long multidimensional crisis. Following years of endemic corruption and the gradual erosion of the rule of law, in 2014 mass protests erupted in response to insecurity, hyperinflation and a lack of essential services. Security forces reacted with disproportionate force, torture and sexual violence. Since then, the Venezuelan government, including the security and intelligence apparatus, has perpetrated systematic arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment, sexual and gender-based violence and short-term enforced disappearances targeting actual and perceived opponents. Various security forces have also allegedly perpetrated tens of thousands of extrajudicial killings in the name of combating crime, predominantly targeting men between 18 and 30 years-old living in low-income neighborhoods. Over the past decade, an estimated 8 million Venezuelans have left the country in what is considered the largest migration crisis in recent Latin American history.

Since the HRC established the FFM in 2019, it has found on multiple occasions that some violations and abuses committed since at least 2014 were part of a “widespread and systematic attack” against the civilian population and are “part of a plan orchestrated at the highest levels of the government to repress dissent through crimes against humanity.” The Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court opened investigations into possible crimes against humanity in November 2021. The government has consistently refused to cooperate with the FFM and in February 2024 demanded the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) withdraw its staff from the country.

Communities across Venezuela, including Indigenous Peoples, also remain at heightened risk of egregious abuses by armed groups, criminal gangs or other non-state actors, acting at times with the consent and direct involvement of Venezuelan state agents who have been implicated in possible crimes against humanity.

Following the start of President Maduro’s fraudulent third term, many countries have expanded pre-existing individual sanctions regimes, including the United States (US), Canada and the European Union (EU).

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Since August the National Assembly has passed a series of restrictions, including legislation known as the “NGO Law,” jeopardizing the work, safety and security of organizations across the country, as well as other measures to criminalize political opposition. Attorney General Tarek William Saab regularly threatens human rights defenders engaging with UN mechanisms with arrest upon return to Venezuela, and authorities have increasingly resorted to short-term enforced disappearances, including of political opponents and prominent human rights defenders, to instill fear and crush dissent.

On 17 September the FFM warned that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Venezuelan authorities have committed the crime against humanity of politically motivated persecution. The FFM also warned in December that “the persecution of perceived government opponents not only continues but has taken the form of a systematic attack on the freedom of those who think differently.” While OHCHR resumed its work in the country in December, so far, no agreement has been reached to allow for full presence in Caracas.

Since January 2025, President Trump has issued several executive orders and decisions threatening the forced return of Venezuelan migrants – most of whom arrived in the US over the past 15 years – who could face repression upon their return.

ANALYSIS:

Venezuela continues to face a highly volatile period due to ongoing political deadlock and parliamentary elections scheduled for 25 May, which risk furthering and intensifying political persecution. Compared with other periods over the past decade, the current tensions and patterns of repression are unprecedented, and leave populations at imminent risk of crimes against humanity. Migration is expected to further increase due to intensifying government repression. The dire humanitarian crisis in Venezuela will likely be exacerbated by growing restrictions in the global development funding environment.

President Maduro’s grip on power is risking a period of renewed regional and international isolation, with disastrous effects for Venezuelans inside and outside the country. Independent monitoring, including by the FFM, is essential to prevent the recurrence of crimes against humanity and alert the international community to appropriate prevention strategies, and must go hand in hand with efforts by cross-regional actors to compel the Maduro administration to engage in political dialogue.

Venezuela’s judicial system is perpetuating impunity for possible atrocity crimes. Government-linked media outlets also play a key role in state repression and persecution. Mass detentions and the use of telecommunication channels to persecute alleged opponents – including protesters from low-income neighborhoods – are used to maintain social control and instill fear.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Senior government officials involved in the planning and commission of violent acts, including possible crimes against humanity.
  • Lack of independent and impartial judiciary and other state institutions, as well as impunity for or tolerance of serious violations of international law, including atrocity crimes.
  • Adoption of measures to criminalize civil society organizations and attacks against democratic institutions and electoral guarantees, particularly in the context of the 2024 and planned 2025 elections.
  • Absence of accountable state authority, presence of non-state armed actors and high levels of crime, corruption and illicit economic exploitation in large parts of the country.
  • Political motives to continue systematic repression aimed at the consolidation of power.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Venezuelan authorities must immediately end the systematic repression and targeted persecution of all actual or alleged opponents and release all individuals subject to arbitrary detention and enforced disappearances. The government should commit to a political solution to the crisis and ensure genuine and comprehensive reform, as well as impartial investigations of all serious violations and abuses.

Latin American governments, the EU, Canada, US and other stakeholders should identify coordinated mitigation strategies to ensure a political solution to the crisis and prevent further commission of crimes against humanity, including ahead of scheduled elections in May.

The international donor community should expand their support for civil society organizations documenting human rights violations and continue to publicly call for the release of those arbitrarily detained or forcibly disappeared. Bi-, regional and multilateral diplomatic, political and economic measures, including sanctions, must be designed to avoid exacerbating socio-economic vulnerabilities of large segments of Venezuelan society.