Russian forces have perpetrated possible war crimes and crimes against humanity since their invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have also committed potential war crimes.

BACKGROUND:

On 24 February 2022 Russian Armed Forces launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, cities and towns across the country have been bombarded with indiscriminate explosive weapons and Russian forces have perpetrated likely war crimes against the civilian population, including indiscriminate attacks, systematic use of torture and sexual and gender-based violence. The UN has verified more than 11,973 civilian deaths since the start of the conflict while emphasizing that there are likely thousands of unverified casualties. The conflict has caused a massive humanitarian crisis, displacing at least 10 million people, including more than 6.5 million who have fled to neighboring countries.

The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has documented the widespread use of heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, unguided missiles, airstrikes and illegal cluster munitions in populated areas. Schools, homes, water and sanitation systems, energy-related infrastructure and civilian shelters have been routinely targeted. The World Health Organization has verified over 2,120 attacks on healthcare since February 2022. Russian forces have bombed and pillaged historical and religious sites. The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization has verified damage to at least 457 cultural and religious sites. In areas under their control, Russia forces have perpetrated killings, rape and torture. Mass graves and burial sites have been found in areas retaken from Russian forces.

Ukrainian and Russian forces have committed abuses against prisoners of war, including torture and ill-treatment, and have prosecuted accused “collaborators,” according to the HRMMU. The UN has documented violations of international law by Russian-affiliated mercenary operatives from the Wagner Group, including enforced disappearances, ill-treatment and extrajudicial executions of prisoners of war, which may amount to war crimes under international law.

Intense fighting also continues in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, a region collectively known as Donbas, and international monitors have documented both sides committing violations that may amount to war crimes. Conflict has been ongoing in Donbas since 2014 after a pro-European change of power in Kyiv prompted the Russian government to militarily support majority-ethnic Russian separatists. An estimated 14,000 people were killed and millions displaced between 2014-2022 and the International Criminal Court (ICC) found evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

The ICC has issued arrest warrants for six Russian officials since 2023, including President Vladimir Putin and former Minister of Defense General Sergei Shoigu, for conduct and abuses in Ukraine that amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity, including the forcible transfer of children from Ukraine to Russia, directing attacks on civilian objects and causing excessive harm to civilian areas. The ICC also opened a field office in Kyiv to assist with the prosecution of over 130,000 cases of war crimes documented by the Ukrainian authorities. Meanwhile, after Ukraine filed a case asking for clarification under Article IX of the Genocide Convention, on 16 March 2022 the International Court of Justice (ICJ) imposed provisional measures, calling on Russia to suspend military operations and cease advancing, as well as requesting all parties to refrain from actions that may prolong the conflict. While the Court determined on 2 February 2024 that it cannot adjudicate on whether Russia’s invasion violated its obligations under the Genocide Convention, it will investigate Russia’s allegations that Ukraine committed a genocide against the Russian-speaking population in Donbas – one of Russia’s justifications for the invasion.

Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has been widely condemned and many states and intergovernmental organizations have responded with targeted sanctions, economic measures and other restrictions. Some states have provided Ukraine’s military with weapons, including banned cluster munitions. The UN General Assembly has passed numerous resolutions that have demanded humanitarian access to civilians, condemned and insisted on the immediate reversal of Russia’s annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory and called for reparations and justice for violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL).

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Civilian casualties have significantly increased since March 2024 amid Russia’s escalating use of powerful air-dropped bombs with wide-area effects. According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, over 3,200 civilian casualties were recorded between June and August 2024, marking a 33.7 percent increase compared to the same period last year. The HRMMU documented at least 208 civilians killed in September and 1,220 injured, marking the highest month for civilian casualties in 2024.

On 23 September the UN Human Rights Council-mandated Commission of Inquiry (CoI) on Ukraine reported evidence of sexual violence used as torture, mainly against male victims in detention, and of rapes targeting women in villages under Russian control. The CoI also found sexual violence across “almost all” detention centers, demonstrating that torture has been used as a common and acceptable practice by Russian authorities, with a sense of impunity.

ANALYSIS:

The CoI, Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe and other monitors have found that violations and abuses perpetrated by Russian forces in areas under their control may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. This includes killing, rape and the systematic use of torture against civilians, as well as grave crimes against children, such as killing, maiming, unlawful transfers and deportations.

Civilians in Ukraine are at increased risk as Russian forces target residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure with relentless drone and rocket strikes with wide-area effects. Ukrainian forces have also perpetrated violations and abuses of international law as they continue a counteroffensive to regain territory. Although the conflict is stagnant in Donbas, civilians on either side of the front lines remain at increased risk as both Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to use banned cluster munitions.

Parties to the conflict have utilized rhetoric that can amount to incitement to violence, increasing the risk of ethnic-based targeting. The CoI is investigating rhetoric utilized in Russian state and other media that may constitute incitement to genocide. Russian officials have also implemented anti-Ukrainian curriculums for children in occupied areas.

The vast differences in the respective preconditions for peace talks expressed by each side highlight the increasingly slim opportunity for negotiations that would bring a lasting end to the conflict.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Failure to adequately halt and address violations of IHL and International Human Rights Law in eastern Ukraine since at least 2014.
  • Russia’s pattern of violence against civilians, their property, livelihoods and cultural symbols and blatant disregard for IHL.
  • Large-scale airstrikes and use of long-range and unguided weapons by Russian forces and counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces.
  • Increasing polarization, marginalization of minority populations, propaganda and inflammatory speech.
  • Impunity for orchestrators and perpetrators of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Parties to the conflict must strictly adhere to IHL and ensure the protection of civilians. All violations must be investigated and perpetrators held accountable. Legal proceedings for those accused of crimes must be transparent, impartial and respect international standards of due process and proportionality.

Amid the protracted crisis, the international community must continue to pressure Russian authorities to halt their aggression in line with the ICJ’s provisional measures, including by closing loopholes in sanctions on dual-use items and third country imports and exports. The international community should maintain its support to Ukraine in upholding its international obligations to protect its populations, including by ensuring the territorial integrity of the country, within the parameters of international law. The international community should also continue to support those in need of humanitarian assistance ahead of the perilous winter months.