Persistent localized and inter-communal violence, amid a fragile and increasingly strained peace process, continues to pose a serious and escalating threat to civilians in South Sudan.

BACKGROUND:

South Sudan is at serious risk of returning to widespread armed conflict amid escalating political tensions, persistent localized violence and the continued failure to fully implement the 2018 peace agreement. Since early 2025 tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, along with their allies and loyalists, have undermined the 2018 power-sharing agreement, which was intended to end the country’s 2013–2015 civil war and chart a path toward stability.

In February 2025 armed opposition groups overran an army base in Nasir, killing more than 20 civilians and displacing thousands. Subsequent retaliatory actions by government forces aligned with President Kiir – the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) – caused additional civilian casualties and extensive damage to infrastructure. A campaign of arrests targeting leaders aligned with Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Army-In Opposition (SPLA-IO), including his own house arrest, effectively rendered the power-sharing framework inoperative by March 2025 and signaled a collapse of the political settlement.

Hostilities and tensions intensified sharply in late December 2025, contributing to a broader cycle of violence involving both government and opposition-aligned armed groups. Attacks targeting Machar and recurrent clashes between his forces – including the loosely organized White Army, composed primarily of Nuer youth – and the SSPDF exacerbated these divisions. Ongoing hate speech and inflammatory rhetoric, including from senior military officials, and localized conflict, featuring intermittent fighting and ethnically motivated violence, continue to expose populations to grave human rights violations and abuses, including conflict-related violence, sexual and gender-based violence, killings and other abuses.

Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has experienced persistent conflict and atrocities, with successive phases of violence threatening civilians across the country. The civil war between December 2013 and August 2015 caused an estimated 400,000 deaths. Both the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), under President Kiir, and the SPLA-In Opposition (SPLA-IO), led by Machar, perpetrated widespread atrocities, including extrajudicial killings, torture, child abductions and sexual violence.

Parties to the conflict signed multiple agreements aimed at resolving the crisis between 2015 and 2018, including the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). The R-ARCSS established the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), placing Kiir and Machar in a power-sharing arrangement. The agreement outlined a transitional framework centered on institutional reform and eventual national elections. Repeated delays in implementing the agreement have prolonged political uncertainty and deepened mistrust, particularly in light of President Kiir’s unilateral amendments and major political reshuffles. The transitional period has been extended multiple times, with the latest extension postponing the country’s first elections to December 2026.

Amid increasing violence, reduction measures resulting from the UN’s financial crisis have significantly constrained the UN Mission in South Sudan’s ability to carry out core protection, political, human rights, stabilization and electoral support functions. Protection patrols fell by an estimated 30–40 percent in areas with reduced force deployment and 60–70 percent where bases are closing.

Over 9.9 million people – more than two thirds of the population – need humanitarian assistance. An estimated 2.6 million people remain internally displaced and 2.29 million have fled to neighboring countries. At the same time, hundreds of thousands of refugees and returnees have been forced to flee the conflict in neighboring Sudan into South Sudan, straining already limited resources and compounding existing food insecurity.

Cross-border movements by armed groups on both sides have heightened insecurity, including in the disputed Abyei border region.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

In recent months, political contestation and intense military operations, including aerial bombardments and indiscriminate attacks, have significantly increased in the Greater Upper Nile, Jonglei and Western and Eastern Equatoria regions. These developments have caused substantial civilian casualties, the destruction of critical infrastructure, including health facilities, schools and public buildings, widespread displacement and the forced separation of families. In Jonglei State, violence has escalated sharply since December, with near daily direct and indiscriminate attacks on civilians. This includes repeated SSPDF aerial bombardments in Nyirol, Uror, Ayod and Duk counties, as well as violent clashes with the SPLA-IO.

In January, after heavy fighting, the SPLA-IO captured Pajut, a town in northern Jonglei more than 300 km north of Juba, bringing the state capital, Bor, within reach. During late December and early January, the SPLA-IO also claimed to have captured the towns of Waat and Yuai. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, around 280,000 people were displaced by renewed fighting in Jonglei between 29 December and 3 February. The SPLA-IO has indicated plans to push further toward Juba, signaling an imminent escalation.

Violence also spread to other parts of the country. On 1 March armed youth attacked Abiemnom County, Ruweng Administrative Area, killing around 170 people, including at least 90 children, women and elderly. While local authorities allege that the armed youth originated from Mayom County in neighboring Unity State and were linked to the SPLA-IO, the SPLA-IO has denied these allegations.

In February the African Union (AU) High-Level Ad Hoc Committee for South Sudan (C5), consisting of five African Heads of State, called for an immediate end to hostilities, measures to create an environment for credible elections and a renewed focus on inclusive political engagement to sustain the peace process.

ANALYSIS:

The current instability in South Sudan stems from longstanding political, ethnic and local tensions, compounded by prolonged delays and ongoing friction within the TGoNU. Senior political and military leaders continue to exploit long-standing ethnic divisions to serve their own agendas, while the repeated failure to uphold peace agreements, ongoing political competition and the mobilization of armed groups reflect a lack of genuine commitment to a political solution. Tensions over access to resources and political appointments have sparked violent clashes and serious human rights violations. Both Kiir and Machar, alongside their supporters and allied forces, have prioritized the preservation of personal power, allowing mistrust to deepen ethnic divisions and fuel violence across the country.

A pervasive culture of impunity continues to perpetuate resentment, recurring cycles of violence and atrocity crimes. Neither the government nor opposition groups have held perpetrators within their own ranks accountable for past or current atrocities. Despite authorities signing into law of the Commission for Truth, Reconciliation and Healing Act and the Compensation and Reparations Authority Act in 2024, none of the transitional justice mechanisms provided for by the R-ARCSS, including the Hybrid Court, have been established or are operational.

The continued influx and accessibility of small arms, light weapons and ammunition among armed groups, government forces, civilians and youth groups have further militarized society and made inter-communal clashes increasingly deadly. The war in Sudan has significantly expanded illicit arms flows into South Sudan, with looted weapons from Sudan trafficked across porous borders through Northern Bahr el-Ghazal and the Abyei region. Ongoing armed conflict and continued violations of ceasefire agreements underline the importance of the UN Security Council (UNSC)-imposed arms embargo and targeted sanctions.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • • A security crisis caused by the sudden breakdown of the power-sharing arrangement, defections and confrontations between the SSPDF and SPLM/A-IO, mobilization of armed groups along ethnic lines and the politicization of past grievances.
    • Impunity for serious violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and International Human Rights Law (IHRL), atrocity crimes or their incitement.
    • Ongoing security vacuum amid a weakened TGoNU.
    • Capacity to commit atrocity crimes, including availability of personnel, arms and ammunition.
    • Escalation of local disputes and inter-communal conflicts.

NECESSARY ACTION:

All parties must urgently adopt measures to de-escalate tensions, prevent the further escalation of conflict and recommit to the R-ARCSS as the foundation for peace and stability in South Sudan. This includes restoring the TGoNU in full compliance with the agreement, ensuring inclusive governance, respect for political freedoms and a return to the peace process roadmap to prevent further political fragmentation. The authorities must release all political leaders currently held in detention. In the absence of a functioning TGoNU, the international community should intensify diplomatic pressure on all parties to guarantee the R-ARCSS’s full and unconditional implementation, including security sector reform.

All armed groups must immediately cease hostilities and respect IHRL and IHL to prevent further civilian harm. All parties must address the root causes of inter-communal violence and ensure the safety and security of all populations. Promoting accountability and professionalism across all security forces remains critical to preventing further violence and breaking the cycle of local and national conflict.

The UNSC must impose additional targeted sanctions on individuals who undermine the peace process. The AU, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and neighboring countries should rigorously enforce the existing arms embargo to stem the flow of weapons fueling conflict.