Ongoing localized and inter-communal violence, as well as political infighting, pose a pervasive threat to civilians in South Sudan.

BACKGROUND:

For over six years, populations across South Sudan have endured widespread instability and escalating localized violence due in part to delays in implementing the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). This instability has its origins in the civil war between December 2013 and August 2015, which claimed an estimated 400,000 lives. During that period, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and armed rebels from the SPLA-In Opposition committed widespread atrocities, including extrajudicial killings, torture, child abductions and sexual violence. Despite multiple peace agreements from 2015 to 2018, intermittent fighting and ethnic violence persisted.

In September 2018 the R-ARCSS was signed by parties to the conflict, including President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar, formally ending the civil war and paving the way for a transitional government. After multiple extensions, on 13 September 2024, President Kiir announced a further two-year extension of the transitional period, postponing elections from December 2024 to December 2026 due to the absence of the necessary infrastructure and reforms for the country’s first elections to be held since its independence in 2011.

The Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) has struggled to implement essential provisions of the R-ARCSS, such as security sector reforms, armed forces unification, constitutional drafting and governance reforms, with many security forces still aligned with different factions of the peace agreement and lacking unified command or professional training. Concerns about the feasibility of elections intensified after the National Elections Commission announced the December election date in July 2024. Political opponents, civil society groups and faith-based organizations voiced skepticism about the possibility of credible elections by December. In August UN Special Representative Nicholas Haysom similarly cautioned that South Sudan was unprepared for elections, citing the absence of a permanent constitutional framework, inadequate electoral institutions, insufficient voter registration and unclear election security plans. President Kiir warned that further postponements could risk reigniting conflict in South Sudan.

The prolonged delays and ongoing political friction within the TGoNU have also fueled local conflicts, as political and military leaders continue to exploit long-standing ethnic divisions.

Grave human rights violations and abuses continue as populations in various parts of the country face frequent inter-communal violence and sub-national clashes. Senior political and military leaders have manipulated long-standing enmities between rival ethnic communities, enabling national level political dynamics to spark local conflicts. Tensions between the two main political parties, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and the SPLM-In Opposition, over access to resources and political appointments have led to violent clashes and serious human rights violations, including widespread sexual violence, particularly against women and girls.

The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) reported in October that inter-communal fighting and violence stemming from community-based militias and civil defense groups, driven by border disputes, cross-border conflicts, cyclical retaliatory attacks and ethnic polarization, continued to be the main cause of subnational violence. Between April and June 2024 UNMISS documented 1,062 victims of inter-communal and political violence, including 442 killed, 297 injured, 197 abducted and 126 subjected to sexual violence. This marked a 32 percent increase in violent incidents and a 16 percent increase in the number of victims compared to the first quarter of 2024. The gravity of the violence was most extensive in Warrap State where 32 percent of all civilian casualties took place.

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, over 9 million people – more than two thirds of the population – need humanitarian assistance. An estimated 2 million people remain internally displaced and 2.29 million have fled to neighboring countries.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

In response to the election postponement, several international bodies, including the UN, African Union (AU), European Union and Troika countries, released statements highlighting the failure of South Sudan’s leaders to establish the necessary conditions for holding credible, peaceful and inclusive elections. They urged the leadership to use the extended transitional period to achieve concrete progress, especially towards security sector reform and the constitutional process.

Throughout August, violence continued across South Sudan. In Upper Nile State clashes between government forces and armed youth in Nasir town escalated tensions and led to an unknown number of civilian displacements. In Tonj East County, Warrap State, revenge-driven inter-communal violence led to the killing of at least 20 civilians and damage to civilian property.

ANALYSIS:

The repeated failure to uphold multiple peace agreements, continued political competition and mobilization of armed groups show a lack of genuine commitment to a political solution by South Sudan’s leaders. Their focus on preserving personal power allowed mistrust to reinvigorate ethnic tensions and fuel violence across the country. Delays in reforming the security sector appear to be a deliberate strategy by President Kiir to retain dominance. The disappearance of civic and political space diminishes opportunities for civilians to participate in constitution-making, transitional justice, national elections and other essential democratic processes and may give rise to grievances that become a trigger for atrocity crimes. While holding elections under the current circumstances risked triggering atrocities, continuously postponing elections can also significantly escalate tensions between political factions and lead to unrest or violence. Frequent delays in the democratic process can foment increased instability and frustration among the public, eroding trust in the government’s commitment or capacity to organize free and fair elections.

The influx of small arms, light weapons and ammunition during South Sudan’s civil war has increased the enduring risk of atrocities, with the accessibility of weapons to civilians and youth groups making inter-communal clashes more deadly. The armed conflict and continued violations of ceasefire agreements underline the importance of the UN Security Council (UNSC)-imposed arms embargo and targeted sanctions.

A pervasive culture of impunity continues to fuel resentment, recurring cycles of armed violence and atrocity crimes. Neither the government nor opposition groups have held perpetrators within their own ranks accountable for past or current atrocities and none of the transitional justice mechanisms provided for by the R-ARCSS, including the Hybrid Court, have been established.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • A security crisis caused by, among other factors, delays in implementing a peace agreement, absence of a unified army under national command, weak state institutions and lack of capacity to prevent atrocity crimes and address rising political and inter-communal tensions.
  • Policy or practice of impunity for serious violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and International Human Rights Law (IHRL), atrocity crimes or their incitement.
  • Past and present serious inter-communal tensions and conflicts, the mobilization of armed groups along ethnic lines and the politicization of past grievances.
  • Capacity to commit atrocity crimes, including availability of personnel, arms and ammunition.
  • Repression of civic and political space.

NECESSARY ACTION:

The transitional government must take decisive action to establish the essential conditions for conducting genuine and peaceful elections. The TGoNU must urgently reform the security sector and promote accountability and professionalism within all security forces. The TGoNU should also respect civic and political space and take all necessary measures to guarantee the participation of civilians in essential democratic processes. All armed groups must immediately cease hostilities and respect IHRL and IHL to prevent further civilian harm. The TGoNU must make every effort to stop the fighting, address the root causes of inter-communal violence and ensure the safety and security of all populations.

The international community should exert increased diplomatic pressure on all parties to the R-ARCSS to ensure its full implementation. The UNSC must impose further targeted sanctions against any individuals who undermine the peace process. The AU, Intergovernmental Authority on Development and neighboring countries should actively enforce the existing arms embargo.

The AU and TGoNU must expeditiously establish the Hybrid Court and prosecute individuals responsible for past atrocities, regardless of their affiliation or position.