Populations across Ethiopia continue to be at risk due to clashes between armed groups and government forces, as well as inter-communal violence. Populations in the Tigray region continue to endure war crimes and crimes against humanity despite a peace agreement.

BACKGROUND:

Long-standing grievances and recurrent human rights abuses by government forces and armed groups in Ethiopia have caused multiple conflicts to flare since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed rose to power in 2018. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed, particularly in the Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions, and over 3 million people remain displaced due to conflict. Inter-communal and inter-religious violence, as well as regional border disputes, also continue. Conflict and climate factors have driven a massive humanitarian crisis, leaving 21.4 million people in need of assistance.

Since 2018, conflict between Oromia regional security forces, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) armed group have killed thousands of civilians, with parties perpetrating violations and abuses that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. Government forces continue to commit enforced disappearances and attacks on civilians, including through repeated air and drone strikes and extrajudicial executions of perceived OLA supporters. The OLA, which seeks autonomy for ethnic Oromos, has targeted ethnic Amharas living in Oromia and border areas.

From November 2020 – 2022 the ENDF and its allies, including the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), also fought in an armed conflict with the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). The fighting began in the Tigray region and subsequently spread to neighboring Afar and Amhara regions in July 2021. War crimes and/or crimes against humanity were committed by all parties to the conflict, with several UN bodies, including the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE), and international human rights groups documenting indiscriminate bombings, ethnic-based killings, forced displacement, destruction of cultural heritage and systematic destruction of food, water and health infrastructure. According to Refugees International, between 40 to 50 percent of women and girls in Tigray experienced sexual violence during the conflict, with 80 percent of victims reporting rape and/or gang rape by armed groups.

Despite the signing of a cessation of hostilities agreement (CoHA) on 2 November 2022 between the federal government and the regional governing Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), abuses by the EDF and Fano, an ethnic Amhara militia, have continued in Tigray, including sexual violence and extrajudicial killings of civilians. The ICHREE’s warnings of an imminent risk of atrocity crimes went unheeded when the UN Human Rights Council failed to renew the Commission’s mandate in October 2023. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have found that Amhara regional forces and militia, including the Fano, and the EDF are responsible for the ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans from Western Tigray, with ENDF complicity. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the ENDF, EDF and myriad militias killed at least 1,351 civilians from January 2023 – January 2024.

In April 2023 the federal government announced plans to integrate regional militia forces into the federal army and police, prompting fears of a loss of regional autonomy and vulnerability to attacks by armed groups. Protests against the measure in Amhara led to intense clashes between the Fano and ENDF. The UN and international human rights groups have documented violations and abuses by the federal government, including mass arbitrary arrests, drone strikes targeting civilian areas, killings of civilians during searches for Fano members and systematic targeting of health facilities, workers and patients in Amhara region amid ongoing clashes. According to Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), at least 115 civilians were killed between September and December 2024.

In April 2024 Ethiopia’s Council of Ministers approved a Transitional Justice Policy followed by a roadmap for its implementation.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

On 3 March the EHRC announced the lifting of a suspension imposed by the federal government in December 2024 against multiple national human rights organizations on false allegations of lacking independence and overstepping their mandate.

On 1 December the federal government signed a peace agreement with an OLA faction and hundreds of fighters entered disarmament and reintegration camps. Despite this agreement, violence remained prevalent in the region, with clashes between OLA and security forces in East and West Wollega, West Guji, North, East and West Shewa and East Arsi zones. On 23 January reports emerged of OLA forces abducting around 50 civilians in North Shewa zone.

Following infighting among the TPLF, a group of senior military commanders denounced the region’s interim administration – which was established by the CoHA – and called for its restructuring, raising fears among populations in Tigray of possible conflict. On 27 February OHCHR said that it has credible information that EDF forces remain in Tigray and continue to commit violations, including abductions, rape, looting and arbitrary arrests.

ANALYSIS:

In Amhara and Oromia, civilians are facing possible atrocities due to fighting between ethnic militias and the federal government’s retaliation against local communities. Amharas in Oromia and Oromos in Amhara, as well as those along the borders of both regions, are vulnerable to attacks by ethnic-based militias. Identity-based killings may amount to crimes against humanity, while targeted attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure may amount to war crimes.

Populations in Tigray, Afar and Amhara also remain at risk of further war crimes and crimes against humanity due to violations of the CoHA. The unresolved question of the administration of Western Tigray and other disputed territories could reignite conflict, with both Amhara and Tigrayan ethnic groups claiming control over the land. Civilians in Tigray also remain at risk due to the continued presence of the EDF, which have been repeatedly accused of atrocities. The fracturing within the TPLF threatens to destabilize the region.

A history of impunity and lack of effective transitional justice for human rights abuses perpetrated under successive ruling parties has exacerbated grievances. Victims and survivors of the most recent violence called for the country’s Transitional Justice Policy to include international elements however, these were not heeded, reducing trust in the domestic accountability process. The targeting of human rights organizations further erodes trust. The non-renewal of the ICHREE incentivizes the federal government to further entrench impunity and undermines victims and survivors’ hopes for justice. Given ongoing conflicts, it is imperative for all parties to pursue conflict resolution tracks before implementing transitional justice initiatives to allow for a holistic, inclusive and long-lasting process.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Ongoing tensions following conflict, threatening the fragile peace process in Tigray and neighboring regions.
  • Policy or practice of impunity for – or tolerance of – serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, atrocity crimes or their incitement.
  • Unresolved inter-communal tensions in conflict-affected areas and the ENDF’s attacks on associated ethnic-based militias.
  • Inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns or hate speech by political figures to capitalize on the politicization of ethnic identity.
  • Lack of trust and confidence in state institutions to resolve conflicts and implement transitional justice initiatives.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Government forces must conduct military operations in line with international law, sparing no effort to protect civilians, as well as ensuring transparent investigations into reported abuses as both an act of accountability and to foster trust with populations, including victims. Armed groups must end the targeting of civilians.

While meaningful steps to implement the CoHA and enable the unfettered delivery of aid have been taken, the process must continue in good faith. The EDF should immediately withdraw from Ethiopia.

Due to the lack of confidence in domestic accountability measures, the international community should explore alternative options, including through universal jurisdiction. The federal government should work with UN Special Procedures and experts on transitional justice to ensure processes meet international standards.

The international community must maintain scrutiny of the crises in Ethiopia. Any normalization should be contingent on steps toward respecting human rights and assurances of inclusive, transparent and good faith accountability efforts.