Populations across Ethiopia continue to be at risk of possible war crimes and crimes against humanity due to clashes between armed groups and government forces, as well as inter-communal violence and escalating regional tensions.

BACKGROUND:

Long-standing grievances and recurrent human rights abuses by government forces and armed groups in Ethiopia have caused multiple conflicts to flare since in 2019. Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been killed, particularly in the Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions, and over 3.3 million people remain displaced. Inter-communal and inter-religious violence, as well as regional border disputes, also continue.

Since 2019 conflict between Oromia regional security forces, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) armed group have killed thousands of civilians, with parties perpetrating violations and abuses that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. Despite a December 2024 peace agreement signed by the federal government and an OLA faction, government forces continue to commit enforced disappearances and attacks on civilians, including through air and drone strikes and extrajudicial executions of perceived OLA supporters. The OLA, which seeks autonomy for ethnic Oromos, has targeted ethnic Amharas living in Oromia and border areas.

From November 2020 to 2022, the ENDF and its allies, including the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF), fought the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). The hostilities, which initially began in Tigray, later spread to the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. War crimes and/or crimes against humanity were committed by all parties to the conflict, with the Tigrayan population enduring the highest levels of violence. This includes mass sexual violence perpetrated by armed groups largely through rape and gang rape. Several UN bodies, including the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE), and rights groups documented indiscriminate bombings, ethnic killings, forced displacement and destruction of cultural heritage and vital infrastructure. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch also reported that Eritrean and Amhara forces, with ENDF complicity, carried out the ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans in Western Tigray.

Although the federal government and the regional governing body, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), signed a cessation of hostilities agreement (CoHA) on 2 November 2022, abuses by the EDF and Fano, an ethnic Amhara militia, have continued in Tigray, including sexual violence and extrajudicial killings of civilians. The regional administration estimates that around 40 percent of Tigray remains occupied, including by the EDF and Amhara forces in the west.

Since April 2023 the ENDF and Fano forces have engaged in clashes in and around civilian areas in Amhara. Throughout the clashes, the UN and other international human rights monitors have documented widespread reports of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, forced displacement, destruction of property attacks on healthcare, looting and widespread cases of sexual violence, including rape. According to these reports, the federal government is responsible for most abuses.

Since 2024 the TPLF has fractured, mainly between a faction loyal to longtime chairman Debretsion Gebremichael (TPLF-D) and another aligned with former deputy Getachew Reda. The split is further complicated by Eritrea’s involvement and the TPLF-D’s alleged ties to the Eritrean government.

Throughout 2025 Ethiopian authorities escalated repression of independent civil society and the media by suspending and closing prominent rights organizations, proposing legal reforms that would sharply increase government control over their operations and using vague charges to target critics. The government also amended the media law to centralize regulatory power under the executive, has suspended foreign media personnel and continues to arbitrarily detain journalists, contributing to widespread self-censorship.

While national efforts toward accountability have been minimal, other justice initiatives have progressed. In May 2025 the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights heard a case brought by Legal Action Worldwide (LAW) and its partners, accusing the Ethiopian government of ongoing violations in Tigray. LAW also filed a universal jurisdiction complaint in Germany against Ethiopian and Eritrean officials for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Separately, Amnesty International is leading a $2 billion reparations case in a Kenyan court against Meta for failing to remove hate speech that incited killings.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Since November 2025 attacks on civilians and inter-communal tensions have flared in multiple regions. In Benishangul-Gumuz, the OLA allegedly killed around 50 civilians, including women and children, on 22 November in house-to-house attacks in Bulen district that reportedly targeted ethnic Amhara residents. In the Gambella region, longstanding disputes between ethnic Nuer and Anuak communities over land, demographics and political representation have been exacerbated by the recent influx of mostly Nuer refugees from South Sudan. Clashes in and around Gambella City in December killed 100 people.

Regional tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have also escalated. On 26 January clashes reignited when the TDF advanced into disputed areas, specifically Tselemti in north-western Tigray, sparking fighting with ENDF troops and Amhara regional militia forces. On 30 January the African Union (AU) offered to mediate, but the Ethiopian government reportedly declined. In February Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed acknowledged for the first time that Eritrean forces were present in Tigray and had committed atrocities against civilians, particularly in Aksum, during the 2020-2022 conflict. In a 7 February letter, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos urged his Eritrean counterpart, Osman Saleh Mohammed, to withdraw the EDF from Ethiopian border areas and cease alleged support for opposition groups. Amid these growing tensions, on 10 February the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights called on all parties to de-escalate the situation in Tigray and to ensure all abuses are investigated, irrespective of the perpetrators.

ANALYSIS:

Civilians in Amhara and Oromia are facing atrocities due to fighting between ethnic militias and the federal government’s retaliation against local communities. Amharas in Oromia and Oromos in Amhara, as well as those along the regional borders, are vulnerable to attacks by ethnic militias. Identity-based killings and targeted attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure violate International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and International Human Rights Law (IHRL) and may amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes.

Populations in Tigray, Afar and Amhara remain at risk of war crimes and crimes against humanity amid violations of the CoHA. Disputes over western Tigray and other territories heighten risks of conflict between Amhara and Tigrayan groups. The continued presence of the EDF, combined with the TPLF’s internal divisions and external exacerbating factors such as Eritrea’s involvement, have heightened fears of renewed conflict between TPLF factions and the federal government, as well as between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

A history of impunity and lack of effective transitional justice for abuses perpetrated under successive ruling parties has exacerbated grievances. ICHREE, the only international body monitoring the situation in Ethiopia was terminated in October 2023 despite issuing multiple warnings of ongoing and future atrocity risks. Victims and survivors of the recent violence called for the country’s Transitional Justice Policy to include international elements; however, these calls were not heeded, reducing trust in the domestic accountability process.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • • Ongoing tensions threatening the fragile peace process in Tigray and neighboring regions.
    • Policy or practice of impunity for – or tolerance of – serious violations of IHL and IHRL, atrocity crimes or their incitement.
    • Unresolved inter-communal tensions in conflict-affected areas and the ENDF’s attacks on associated ethnic-based militias.
    • Inflammatory rhetoric, propaganda campaigns or hate speech by political figures to capitalize on the politicization of ethnic identity.
    • Lack of trust and confidence in state institutions to resolve conflicts and implement transitional justice initiatives.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Government forces must comply with international law, prioritize civilian protection and transparently investigate alleged abuses to ensure accountability and restore trust with victims and affected populations. Armed groups must end the targeting of civilians. The EDF should immediately withdraw from Ethiopia. The federal government, regional authorities in Tigray and Eritrean authorities must de-escalate tensions to prevent renewed conflict.

Sustained, coordinated diplomatic pressure is needed to ensure full implementation of the CoHA, including clear benchmarks, public reporting and consequences for non-compliance. The AU and key states involved in brokering the agreement should push for its implementation.

UN member states should ensure engagement at the Security Council and Human Rights Council, calling for independent human rights monitoring and strengthened accountability efforts, including international investigative and evidence-preservation mechanisms aimed at breaking cycles of impunity.

Due to the lack of confidence in domestic accountability measures, the international community should explore alternative options, including through universal jurisdiction. It is imperative for all parties to pursue conflict resolution tracks before implementing transitional justice initiatives to allow for a holistic, inclusive and long-lasting process. The federal government should work with UN Special Procedures and other experts on transitional justice to ensure processes meet international standards.