Populations in the Central African Republic are at risk of possible atrocity crimes due to ongoing violence by armed groups and abuses by government and allied forces.

BACKGROUND:

During December 2020 a loose alliance of predatory armed groups, known as the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), launched a violent offensive against the government of the Central African Republic (CAR), marking a shift in the crisis. Major towns were occupied by the CPC, which included some of CAR’s strongest rebel groups. The Central African Armed Forces (FACA) – working closely with Russian security partners, including mercenary fighters from the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) – responded with counteroffensives, forcing armed groups to withdraw from provincial towns for the first time in at least a decade and further into remote areas.

Since then, the CPC – although weakened and internally divided – and other armed groups have perpetrated regular violent attacks, with civilian populations in the northwest, east and south bearing the brunt. Armed groups are committing International Humanitarian Law (IHL) violations, including killing and abducting civilians, the forcible recruitment of children and attacks on civilian infrastructure, humanitarian workers and the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSCA). The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported that two CPC-affiliated armed groups, including the Union for Peace in CAR (UPC), have perpetrated systematic and widespread conflict-related sexual violence, including rape, gang rape and sexual slavery. CPC-aligned armed groups in particular have increasingly utilized guerrilla tactics, including explosive ordnance and kidnappings, oftentimes ambushing FACA and isolating civilians in rural communities. Some armed groups frequently use or lay landmines and explosive ordnance, resulting in civilian harm and hindering aid delivery in the northwest.

The UN has also documented abuses and violations by FACA and mercenaries that may amount to war crimes, including summary executions, arbitrary killings, torture, rape and enforced disappearances. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, Russian mercenaries have reportedly killed over 900 civilians since December 2020. Ethnic and religious minorities have been disproportionately targeted – including attacks, ill-treatment, illegal arrests and detentions – in operations by FACA troops and Russian mercenaries. OHCHR has previously implicated proxy forces – who were recruited, trained and armed by FACA and mercenaries – in incidents targeting and punishing Muslim and Fulani communities that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. The police have also arbitrarily arrested, illegally detained and tortured members of the Fulani community.

During March 2023 the Azande Ani Kpi Gbe (AAKG), a predominantly ethnic Azande armed group, emerged in Haut-Mbomou. The AAKG has sporadically clashed with the UPC, a predominantly Fulani armed group, and forcibly recruited Azande youth and targeted Fulani and Muslim communities with threats and abductions.

Government institutions have cracked down on human rights defenders, independent media and the opposition in recent years, with many arrested, harassed by pro-government armed groups or subjected to judicial investigations. These authoritarian actions increased throughout 2024, fueling persistent tensions ahead of a key electoral period during 2025.

The protracted crisis in CAR has its origins in the overthrow of President François Bozizé during March 2013 by the mainly Muslim Séléka rebel alliance. Abuses by the Séléka led to the formation of predominantly Christian anti-balaka militias and the collapse of state institutions. Anti-balaka and ex-Séléka forces may have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity between 2013-2015. Although a 2019 peace deal formally ended the conflict, armed groups continued to engage in sporadic violence.

Trials are ongoing at the International Criminal Court for former anti-balaka leaders and a Séléka leader. The Special Criminal Court (SCC) in CAR has issued at least 46 arrest warrants for war crimes and/or crimes against humanity and has more than a dozen judicial inquires open.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Armed group activity and IHL violations and human rights abuses continue, particularly in the northwest and east due to competition over mining sites and main road axes. Between June and October the UN recorded a 73 percent increase in violations and abuses, especially grave violations against children and conflict-related sexual violence, and an 83 percent increase in the number of victims.

The UN Security Council-mandated Panel of Experts (PoE) has warned of a spillover effect of the conflict in neighboring Sudan. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have crossed the border to use CAR territory as a logistical hub and recruit fighters from armed groups, while the Sudanese Armed Forces have launched air raids along the border. The PoE also alerted about heightened tensions between local communities and Sudanese refugees, with armed groups infiltrating camps and engaging in forced recruitment, use of child soldiers and attacks based on religious and ethnic grounds.

In southeast CAR, the AAKG and UPC have launched attacks in Haut-Mbomou since February, targeting civilians along ethnic and religious lines and resulting in dozens killed or injured. Meanwhile, hundreds of AAKG fighters were integrated into the FACA and are conducting joint operations under the name Wagner Ti Azande, dislocating the UPC from their strongholds. Since then, UPC attacks on civilians have become increasingly brutal. Escalating abuses by the AAKG against non-Zandé groups, particularly Fulani and Muslim, have also been reported, including the targeting of civilians in displacement camps and cases gang rape.

After one CPC leader expressed willingness to end hostilities, on 14 August the government and an armed group representative met in Bangui for disarmament talks. In recent months hundreds of CPC combatants have voluntarily surrendered. However, dissident factions of the CPC continue to pursue their own interests and attack civilians and civilian property across eastern CAR.

ANALYSIS:

The security situation remains precarious in certain areas amid heightened tensions and recurrent attacks on civilians. Although the CPC has weakened and become fragmented over time, combatants continue to pose a threat to civilians. The cross-border flow of foreign fighters, arms and natural resources contributes to a thriving conflict-economy. Wagner operatives have committed human rights abuses and targeted civilians as they maintain and increase their control of mining areas.

The targeting of ethnic and religious communities heightens atrocity risks and may trigger further violence along communal, religious and ethnic lines. Continued attacks by the UPC and AAKG, as well as the integration of AAKG fighters into the FACA, risks reprisals against Fulani and Muslim communities.

The history of widespread impunity in CAR has fueled cycles of armed conflict and atrocities. While there are several mechanisms mandated to deal with international crimes perpetrated in CAR, accountability remains limited with few alleged perpetrators having been arrested, prosecuted or tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity since 2013.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Security crisis caused by, among other factors, defection from a peace agreement, lack of commitment to a ceasefire and armed activity.
  • Acts of violence and exploitation against vulnerable populations, particularly women and children.
  • Escalating violence on the basis of ethnicity and religion, increasing likelihood of retaliatory attacks.
  • Training and use of abusive armed groups as proxies and integration of such groups into FACA, inflaming inter-communal tensions.
  • Repressive measures to close civic space and suppress dissent, resulting in a climate of fear ahead of local and presidential elections in 2025.

NECESSARY ACTION:

All armed actors must adhere to their obligations under IHL and International Human Rights Law. CAR authorities must instruct FACA to cease collusion or cooperation with armed groups. Provincial and local authorities, in coordination with civil society, should implement community-based atrocity prevention and response strategies to address and mitigate inter-communal tensions, as well as transhumance-related violence. The international community should provide the necessary resources to the UN Mine Action Service for the clearance of explosive devices.

All perpetrators of atrocities in CAR should be held legally accountable, regardless of their political status, rank, affiliation or nationality. All suspects subject to SCC arrest warrants should be taken into custody. The international community should ensure that the SCC has sufficient resources to carry out its mandate.

CAR authorities must guarantee the independence of institutions, respect freedom of peaceful assembly and association, strengthen and protect civic space and counter incitement to violence.