Populations in the Central African Republic are at risk of atrocity crimes due to ongoing violence by armed groups and abuses by government and allied forces.

BACKGROUND:

Civilians in the Central African Republic (CAR) continue be caught in the middle of fighting after the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), a loose alliance of predatory armed groups, launched an offensive against the government in late 2020, collapsing a 2019 peace deal that formally ended more than five years of armed conflict. Major towns were occupied by the CPC, which included some of CAR’s strongest rebel groups. The Central African Armed Forces (FACA) – working closely with Russian security partners, including mercenary fighters from the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) – responded with counteroffensives, forcing armed groups to withdraw from provincial towns for the first time in at least a decade.

Since then, the CPC – although weakened and internally divided – and other armed groups have perpetrated regular violent attacks, with civilian populations in the northwest, east and south bearing the brunt. The groups are committing violations of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), including killing and abducting civilians, the forcible recruitment of children and attacks on civilian infrastructure, humanitarian workers and the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSCA). The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported that two CPC-affiliated armed groups, including the Union for Peace in CAR (UPC), have perpetrated systematic and widespread conflict-related sexual violence, including rape, gang rape and sexual slavery. CPC-aligned armed groups have increasingly utilized guerrilla tactics, including explosive ordnance and kidnappings, oftentimes ambushing FACA and isolating civilians in rural communities. Some armed groups frequently use or lay landmines and explosive ordnance, resulting in civilian harm and hindering aid delivery in the northwest. In 2024 children constituted 40 percent of the civilian victims from mines and explosive devices.

The UN has also documented abuses and violations by FACA and mercenaries that may amount to war crimes, including summary executions, arbitrary killings, torture, rape and enforced disappearances. Ethnic and religious minorities have been disproportionately targeted – including attacks, ill-treatment, illegal arrests and detentions – in operations by FACA troops and mercenaries. OHCHR has previously implicated proxy forces – who were recruited, trained and armed by FACA and mercenaries – in incidents targeting and punishing Muslim and Fulani communities that may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. The police have also arbitrarily arrested, illegally detained and tortured Fulani civilians.

Throughout 2024 clashes intensified between the Azande Ani Kpi Gbe (AAKG), a predominantly ethnic Azande armed group, and the UPC, a predominantly Fulani armed group, in Haut-Mbomou. Hundreds of AAKG fighters were integrated into the FACA and are conducting joint operations under the name Wagner Ti Azande (WTA), dislocating the UPC from their strongholds and attempting to expand westward to Mbomou Prefecture. The WTA, supported by AAKG combatants, have repeatedly targeted civilians over alleged association with the UPC and Muslim community.

Government institutions have cracked down on human rights defenders, independent media and the opposition in recent years, with many arrested, harassed by pro-government armed groups or subjected to judicial investigations. These authoritarian actions increased throughout 2024, fueling persistent tensions ahead of the 2025 local and presidential elections.

The protracted crisis in CAR has its origins in the overthrow of President François Bozizé during March 2013 by the mainly Muslim Séléka rebel alliance. Abuses by the Séléka led to the formation of predominantly Christian anti-balaka militias and the collapse of state institutions. Anti-balaka and ex-Séléka forces may have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity between 2013-2015. Trials are ongoing at the International Criminal Court for former anti-balaka leaders and a Séléka leader. The Special Criminal Court (SCC) in CAR has issued at least 46 arrest warrants for war crimes and/or crimes against humanity and has more than a dozen judicial inquires open.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Armed group activity and IHL violations and human rights abuses continue, particularly in the northwest, south and east due to competition over mining sites and main road axes, leading to killings, kidnapping and increased conflict-related sexual violence and grave violations against children. MINUSCA has maintained or established temporary operating bases in Ouaka, Haut-Mbomou and Basse-Kotto prefectures, where the security situation has deteriorated, and civilians are facing increased threats from armed groups. A March report by OHCHR and MINUSCA documented likely war crimes by WTA combatants in Mbomou and Haut-Mbomou during October 2024 and January 2025. During the attacks – which primarily targeted Muslim communities and Sudanese refugees – combatants perpetrated summary executions, sexual violence, torture and forced labor, among other abuses. Based on analysis utilizing the UN’s Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes, the report warned that there are significant risks of recurrence in Mbomou and Haut-Mbomou.

UN experts and officials have warned of a spillover effect of the conflict in neighboring Sudan, including heightened tensions between local communities and Sudanese refugees. At times armed groups have reportedly infiltrated camps and engaged in forced recruitment, use of child soldiers and attacks based on religious and ethnic grounds.

In recent months, several armed groups have attacked voter registration agents or centers, hindering the electoral process. In February MINUSCA reported that challenges persist, with 58 registration centers closed for security reasons.

ANALYSIS:

The security situation remains precarious in certain areas amid recurrent attacks on civilians. Although the CPC has weakened and become fragmented over time, combatants continue to pose a threat to civilians as dissident factions, known as the CPC-F, pursue their own interests and target civilians. The cross-border flow of foreign fighters, arms and natural resources contributes to a thriving conflict-economy. Africa Corps have committed human rights abuses and targeted civilians to maintain and increase their control of mining areas.

Continued attacks and targeting by the AAKG and WTA has fueled reprisals against Fulani and Muslim communities, while UPC abuses are increasingly threatening Azande communities. This retaliatory violence along ethnic and religious lines heightens atrocity risks and has inflamed inter-communal tensions and resentment in southeast CAR. Although the government has taken steps to address the violence, including through arrests and plans to establish a tribunal in Zémio, limited state presence in parts of Mbomou and Haut-Mbomou have fueled a climate of impunity.

The history of widespread impunity in CAR has fueled cycles of armed conflict and atrocities. While there are several mechanisms mandated to deal with international crimes perpetrated in CAR, accountability remains limited with few alleged perpetrators having been arrested, prosecuted or tried for war crimes and crimes against humanity since 2013.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Security crisis caused by, among other factors, defection from a peace agreement, lack of commitment to a ceasefire and armed activity.
  • Acts of violence and exploitation against vulnerable populations.
  • Escalating violence and hate speech on the basis of ethnicity and religion, increasing retaliatory attacks and the formation of self-defense groups and/or forced recruitment.
  • Training and use of abusive armed groups as proxies and integration of such groups into FACA, and lack of clarity around the chain of command, encouraging the commission of abuses.
  • Repressive measures to close civic space and suppress dissent, resulting in a climate of fear ahead of local and presidential elections in 2025.

NECESSARY ACTION:

All armed actors must adhere to their obligations under IHL and International Human Rights Law. CAR authorities must instruct FACA to cease collusion or cooperation with armed groups. Provincial and local authorities, in coordination with civil society, should implement community-based atrocity prevention and response strategies to address and mitigate inter-communal tensions.

All perpetrators of atrocities in CAR should be held legally accountable, regardless of their political status, rank, affiliation or nationality. All suspects subject to SCC arrest warrants should be taken into custody. The international community should ensure that the SCC has sufficient resources to carry out its mandate.

CAR authorities must guarantee the independence of institutions, respect freedom of peaceful assembly and association, strengthen and protect civic space and counter incitement to violence.