Populations in Sudan are enduring war crimes and crimes against humanity due to an armed confrontation between the Sudanese military and paramilitary forces. Non-Arab communities in Darfur are at risk of genocide as result of ethnically motivated killings.

BACKGROUND:

On 15 April 2023 violent clashes broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In their fight to preserve and expand control, both parties have perpetrated indiscriminate and deliberate attacks against civilians and civilian objects, often with rocket shells, bombardments and heavy artillery, that amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project has recorded over 6,050 violent events targeting civilians since the war began. The widespread use of sexual violence, including rape, sexual assault, exploitation and sexual slavery, has been reported.

The RSF have utilized the conflict to launch a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing and large-scale attacks targeting non-Arab communities, particularly the Massalit. Dozens of cities, towns and villages have been fully or partially destroyed across Darfur. The UN Security Council (UNSC)-mandated Panel of Experts estimates that between 10,000 and 15,000 civilians were killed by the RSF and allied militia in El Geneina from April to June 2023 alone. Mass graves have been identified in El Geneina and Misterei, West Darfur.

Access to food, medical care and other essential services has been severely disrupted and restricted while targeted attacks and the looting of humanitarian supplies have left civilians without access to lifesaving support. The conflict has triggered the world’s largest hunger crisis, with 25.6 million people – over half the population – facing acute hunger. During August the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Famine Review Committee determined that famine is ongoing in the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur and similar conditions are likely present in other displacement sites in the El Fasher area. During February the SAF was accused of prohibiting and obstructing cross-border humanitarian aid and assistance to RSF-controlled areas. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, over 7.7 million people have been internally displaced and an additional 2 million have fled to neighboring countries since April 2023.

Strong condemnation and diplomatic efforts by the African Union (AU), Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and various countries, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, South Sudan and the United States (US), have yielded limited results. Despite the fighting, on 16 November 2023 military authorities requested the immediate termination of the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan. On 20 January Sudan suspended its membership with IGAD. The UN Secretary-General has appointed a Personal Envoy for Sudan while IGAD has appointed a Special Envoy.

Sudan has undergone significant political changes since former President Omar al-Bashir was overthrown after country-wide protests in 2019. Leadership was handed over to a joint civilian-military transitional Sovereign Council until the military – under the leadership of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and supported by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo – seized power on 25 October 2021. The latest conflict was initially sparked by mounting tensions between General Burhan, commander of the SAF, and General Hemedti, commander of the RSF, regarding the integration of the RSF into Sudan’s regular forces as part of a political agreement aiming to establish a new transitional civilian authority.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Throughout July and August, the RSF increasingly expanded their control over various regions. Violence escalated in Jebel Moya and other locations in Sennar State, and spread to the capital city of Sinja, as the RSF extended eastwards. During late July at least 85 people were killed in attacks by the RSF on Galgani, Sennar State. Clashes have also been reported around strategic locations in West Kordofan State. The RSF have taken control of the capital city, El Fula, and various military bases, as well as secured supply routes from South Sudan, where they allegedly receive fuel, ammunition and weapons. During August clashes were reported in Blue Nile State for the first time, while fighting escalated in Khartoum and Omdurman.

Since April intensified fighting in and around El Fasher has had a devastating toll on civilians. The health ministry in North Darfur reported that violence in El Fasher has resulted in over 5,000 casualties since May. On 13 July the UNSC adopted a resolution demanding that the RSF halt their siege of El Fasher and calling for an immediate cessation and de-escalation of fighting in and around El Fasher. The UNSC requested the UN Secretary-General – in consultation with the Sudanese authorities and regional stakeholders – to make further recommendations for the protection of civilians Despite this, at least 168 civilians were killed during clashes between the RSF and SAF in El Fasher between 26 and 28 July alone. On 3 August at least 30 people were killed in what local monitors are calling the “largest ground attack” by the RSF on El Fasher to date.

ANALYSIS:

Since former President Bashir was ousted, General Burhan and General Hemedti have consistently obstructed Sudan’s political transition to preserve and expand their power and privileges. Both continue to recruit forces along ethnic lines and strengthen relationships with regional powers, including several Gulf states. Many civil society groups and experts did not support the transition process, warning that involving the military in negotiations legitimized the 2021 coup and rewarded actors involved in grave human rights violations and atrocities.

For decades, the Arab-dominated government imposed its control on ethnic minorities and exploited ethnic divisions and the presence of armed Arab militias – including the Janjaweed, the forerunner of the RSF – resulted in competition and deadly conflicts over shrinking resources and pastoral land. Local authorities have lacked the capacity and resources to ensure the protection of civilians. Amid the current conflict, civilians in Darfur, particularly those from non-Arab communities, are at risk of ethnic cleansing and genocide given the region’s genocidal history, entrenched impunity for past crimes and the ethnically charged nature of the ongoing violence. While a ceasefire agreement between the SAF and RSF remains important, such an agreement on its own will not bring an end to the RSF’s parallel campaign of identity-based mass violence.

Impunity has allowed those responsible for atrocity crimes and grave human rights violations to remain in leadership positions. During his dictatorship, former President Bashir, government officials and militia leaders were allegedly responsible for crimes against humanity, war crimes and acts of genocide, for which they were indicted by the International Criminal Court following a 2005 UNSC referral. As a commander of the Janjaweed, General Hemedti was also implicated in atrocities committed during the conflict in Darfur and beyond.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Political instability caused by abrupt or irregular regime change and widespread mistrust in state institutions.
  • Humanitarian and human rights crisis caused by armed confrontation, including in densely populated areas.
  • Deliberate targeting of civilians based on their ethnicity, which may amount to ethnic cleansing and genocide.
  • Past or present serious discriminatory practices, policies or legislation against marginalized communities and persons belonging to minority groups, some of which may amount to crimes against humanity and acts of genocide.
  • Absence of reconciliation or transitional justice processes following decades of conflict and atrocities.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Generals Burhan and Hemedti must agree to a permanent cessation of hostilities and all forces under their command must adhere to international human rights and humanitarian law. In addition to ceasefire negotiations, the international community must assess the risk of further atrocities, including evaluating which communities are at imminent risk, and determine appropriate response.

It is essential that humanitarian organizations are allowed safe and unhindered access. International donors must utilize more innovative ways of delivering aid to vulnerable populations across Sudan, including by supporting civilian-run Resistance Committees and neighborhood communities and disbursing cash grants.

The UNSC, AU, IGAD and states with influence over the warring parties should continue to support efforts aimed at ending the fighting, while urgently prioritizing the protection of civilians and the prevention of any further escalation in civilian harm. The UN Secretary-General, regional and sub-regional organizations, as well as the UNSC, must explore all options for civilian protection, including under Chapter VII and VIII of the UN Charter, to establish and maintain a permanent ceasefire and ensure humanitarian access. The UNSC must also consider expanding the existing sanctions regime, including against those responsible for conflict-related sexual violence and the targeting of communities based on their ethnic identity.