Populations in Sudan are enduring war crimes and crimes against humanity due to an armed confrontation between the Sudanese military and paramilitary forces. Non-Arab communities in Darfur are at risk of genocide as result of ethnically motivated killings.

BACKGROUND:

On 15 April 2023 violent clashes broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In their fight to preserve and expand control, both parties have perpetrated indiscriminate and deliberate attacks against civilians and civilian objects, often with rocket shells, bombardments and heavy artillery, including in densely populated areas. The widespread use of sexual violence, including rape, sexual assault, exploitation and sexual slavery, has been reported. The UN Human Rights Council-mandated Fact-Finding Mission has concluded that the SAF and RSF, and their allied militias, are responsible for large-scale violations of human rights and International Humanitarian Law (IHL), many of which amount to war crimes and/or crimes against humanity. According to the World Health Organization, more than 20,000 people have been killed.

The RSF have utilized the conflict to launch a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing and large-scale attacks targeting non-Arab communities. RSF forces have expanded their control over almost all of Darfur, and dozens of cities, towns and villages have been fully or partially destroyed. The UN Security Council (UNSC)-mandated Panel of Experts estimates that the RSF and allied militia killed between 10,000 and 15,000 civilians in El Geneina from April to June 2023 alone. El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, remains the only area not under the control of the RSF. However, the city has been besieged for nearly seven months, significantly increasing the risk of mass atrocities.

The ongoing conflict has severely restricted access to lifesaving aid and essential services due to targeted attacks and looting of humanitarian supplies. The conflict has triggered the world’s largest hunger crisis, with 25.6 million people facing acute hunger. During August the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Famine Review Committee determined that famine is ongoing in the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur, with similar conditions likely present in other sites around El Fasher. The International Organization for Migration reports that over 13 million people have been displaced, including 2.3 million who have fled to neighboring countries.

Sudan has undergone significant political changes since former President Omar al-Bashir was overthrown after country-wide protests in 2019. Leadership was handed over to a joint civilian-military transitional Sovereign Council until the military – under the leadership of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and supported by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo – seized power on 25 October 2021. The latest conflict was initially sparked by mounting tensions between General Burhan, commander of the SAF, and General Hemedti, commander of the RSF, regarding the integration of the RSF into Sudan’s regular forces as part of a political agreement aiming to establish a new transitional civilian authority.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS:

Violence has escalated with the onset of the dry season, as the SAF and RSF continue their fight for control of key areas across Sudan. On 21 September the RSF launched a coordinated assault on El Fasher, breaching the SAF’s outer defenses. Witnesses described the subsequent clashes as the most violent since the siege of El Fasher began. By late November clashes had advanced toward the city center, including key military sites and the B-26 road to Zamzam camp. In Khartoum, clashes escalated when the RSF successfully reinforced its positions, particularly in Omdurman. On 13 October at least 23 people were killed and 40 injured following an airstrike by the SAF on a marketplace in Khartoum. Between 20 and 25 October the RSF reportedly launched violent attacks across Al Jazeera State, indiscriminately killing civilians, committing acts of sexual violence against women and girls and looting homes, markets and farms. At least 124 civilians were killed in the village of Al-Sireha.

On 14 August the United States, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, the African Union (AU) and UN convened in Switzerland to renew efforts for a ceasefire and humanitarian access. While this so-called Aligned for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan (ALPS) Group secured commitments from both sides to reopen and expand critical humanitarian access routes and improve civilian protection, tangible progress remains limited. Following a field mission to Port Sudan on 3 October, the AU’s Peace and Security Council called for the reopening of the AU Liaison Office to facilitate technical assistance and engagement with stakeholders.

On 8 November the UNSC sanctioned two RSF commanders for the first time since the conflict’s outbreak. However, on 18 November, a proposed resolution to advance civilian protection measures was blocked when Russia exercised its veto.

ANALYSIS:

Since former President Bashir was ousted, General Burhan and General Hemedti have consistently obstructed Sudan’s political transition to preserve and expand their power and privileges. Both continue to recruit forces along ethnic lines and strengthen relationships with regional powers, including several Gulf states. Many civil society groups and experts did not support the transition process, warning that involving the military in negotiations legitimized the 2021 coup and rewarded actors involved in grave human rights violations and atrocities.

While a ceasefire agreement between the SAF and RSF is vital, it will not end the RSF’s parallel campaign of identity-based mass violence. For decades, the Arab-dominated government imposed its control on ethnic minorities and exploited ethnic divisions and the presence of armed Arab militias – including the Janjaweed, the forerunner of the RSF – resulted in competition and deadly conflicts over shrinking resources and pastoral land. Amid the current conflict, civilians in Darfur, particularly those from non-Arab communities, are at risk of ethnic cleansing and genocide given the region’s genocidal history, entrenched impunity for past crimes and ongoing ethnically charged violence. There is a significant risk that acts of genocide and/or crimes against humanity could occur in El Fasher if the current trajectory of violence continues. With the onset of the dry season, the RSF is expected to leverage its ground mobility, while the SAF has already begun increasing the use of drones and air power to counter RSF advances, particularly in Khartoum and Darfur.

Impunity has allowed those responsible for atrocity crimes and grave human rights violations to remain in leadership positions. During his dictatorship, former President Bashir, government officials and militia leaders were allegedly responsible for crimes against humanity, war crimes and acts of genocide, for which they were indicted by the International Criminal Court following a 2005 UNSC referral. As a commander of the Janjaweed, General Hemedti was also implicated in atrocities committed during the conflict in Darfur and beyond.

RISK ASSESSMENT:

• • Political instability caused by abrupt or irregular regime change and widespread mistrust in state institutions.
  • Humanitarian and human rights crisis caused by armed confrontation, including in densely populated areas.
  • Deliberate targeting of civilians based on their ethnicity, which may amount to ethnic cleansing and genocide.
  • Past or present serious discriminatory practices, policies or legislation against marginalized communities and persons belonging to minority groups, some of which may amount to crimes against humanity and acts of genocide.
  • Absence of reconciliation or transitional justice processes following decades of conflict and atrocities.

NECESSARY ACTION:

Generals Burhan and Hemedti must agree to a permanent cessation of hostilities and all forces under their command must adhere to International Human Rights Law and IHL. In addition to ceasefire negotiations, the international community must assess the risk of further atrocities, including evaluating which communities are at imminent risk, and determine appropriate response.

It is essential that humanitarian organizations are allowed safe and unhindered access. International donors must utilize more innovative ways of delivering aid to vulnerable populations across Sudan, including by supporting civilian-run Emergency Response Rooms and neighborhood communities and disbursing cash grants.

The UNSC, AU, Intergovernmental Authority on Development and states with influence over the warring parties should continue to support efforts aimed at ending the fighting, while urgently prioritizing the protection of civilians and the prevention of any further escalation in civilian harm. The UNSC must consider expanding the existing sanctions regime, including against those responsible for conflict-related sexual violence and the targeting of communities based on their ethnic identity.